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USD/JPY Forecast: Consolidates Between Key Moving Averages

By Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex...

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  • The US dollar has initially rallied a bit against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Tuesday.
  • At this point, the 200 day EMA has offered resistance and we're seeing that again, but I also see a lot of support just below, especially near the 50 day EMA.
  • If we were to break down below the 50 day EMA, then we could go looking to the 146 yen level, although I don't really see that happening as much as I see some type of bounce.

After all, we are starting to see the US dollar beat up on some other currencies. Although admittedly, the Japanese yen is considered to be a major safety currency as well. So, while the US dollar I believe will eventually rise against the yen, it may be other currencies plunging against the yen that keeps this somewhat stable. We'll just have to wait and see. It is early at this point, but it certainly looks like risk appetite is struggling a bit.

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If we were to break above the 148 yen level on a daily close, then it could open up a move to the 151 yen level. If we break down below the bottom of the hammer from last week, testing the 146 yen level, then it could open up a move to the 145 yen level.

USD/JPY Forecast 20/08: Consolidates Against JPY (graph)

Major Moving Averages

We are hanging around the 200-day EMA and the 50-day EMA, so that in and of itself will continue to cause a lot of noise. And of course, we have the Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of the week that could cause headaches as well. All things being equal, though, you get paid to hang on to this pair, and I wouldn't forget that, because that is a major factor here, and it keeps the markets somewhat afloat.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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