EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Cautiously neutral.
- Support Levels: 1.1660 – 1.1600 – 1.1540
- Resistance Levels: 1.1750 – 1.1810 - 1.1880
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy: Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1580, with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1500.
- Sell: Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1800, with a target of 1.1600 and a stop-loss at 1.1880.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
As anticipated, EUR/USD trading will remain cautious and within a narrow range until the market reacts to the release of U.S. inflation data, which is the most significant event for financial markets this week, especially after the setback from last week's U.S. employment report. According to reliable trading platforms, attempts by EUR/USD to recover this week stalled at the 1.1779 resistance level. The pair then experienced profit-taking, which led to it settling around 1.1690 at the time of writing this analysis.
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What Will the European Central Bank Deliver Today?
The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged for its second consecutive meeting today, Thursday. The announcement will be at 3:15 PM, Egypt time. Policymakers are maintaining a cautious "wait-and-see" approach given the stability of inflation, the resilience of the economy, and uncertainty surrounding trade policy. The main refinancing rate is set to remain at 2.15%, while the deposit facility rate will stay at 2%. Investors will pay close attention to the ECB's post-meeting macroeconomic projections, which will provide updated forecasts for growth and inflation. The ECB had previously cut borrowing costs by 200 basis points between June 2024 and June 2025, with the rate cuts halting in July.
Overall, financial markets currently expect interest rates to remain stable until the end of the year, with a potential return to tightening in late 2026. At the same time, Eurozone growth is projected to reach 1.2% this year, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.4% in 2027, although political instability in countries like France and Spain could cast a shadow over these forecasts.
Will U.S. Inflation Rise Today?
The most important event for forex markets today is the release of U.S. inflation figures at 3:30 PM, Egypt time. The annual inflation rate in the U.S. is expected to accelerate to 2.9% in August 2025, which would be its highest level since January, following its stabilization at 2.7% in June and July. On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.3%, surpassing the 0.2% increase in July. This rise likely reflects retailers gradually passing on higher import tariffs, along with an increase in gasoline and supermarket prices.
Conversely, rents are expected to decline. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is expected to remain steady at 3.1%, the same level as in July and its peak in February, with the core CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month, in line with July's pace.
Today's EUR/USD Technical Outlook
As observed on the daily chart, EUR/USD trading remains neutral. The bullish outlook will strengthen if the bulls succeed in breaking the 1.1800 resistance level, which is a key waypoint for a move toward the psychological resistance of 1.2000. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently near a reading of 52, closer to the neutral line, while the MACD lines also confirm the neutral performance. Conversely, over the same period, the 1.1580 support level will remain crucial for the bears to take control of the EUR/USD trend.
Trading Advice:
Traders are advised to wait for the market's reaction to the U.S. inflation and ECB announcements to determine the most suitable trading direction for EUR/USD, whether to buy or sell.
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