- The Euro rallied a bit during the first session of the week, but quite frankly, this is a market that if you look at it, we have been in a range for a while.
- With that being the case, we need to pay close attention to whether or not we have broken out of this range, and so far, it doesn’t seem to be the case.
- With this being the reality of this market, I would not get overly excited about putting a lot of money to work quite yet.
Range
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We are currently in a range between the 1.16 level at the bottom, and the 1.18 level at the top. Despite the fact that we have seen a lot of bullish pressure on Monday, we really haven’t changed anything yet, and until we break out of the 200 pip range, we are in a situation where we just simply need to see some type of momentum to get involved. At this juncture, I think the market is really struggling with the idea of whether or not things are going to become decidedly negative for the US dollar, or if we are going to see a bit of a “risk off move”, which actually will help the dollar.
The European Central Bank has an interest rate decision on Thursday, and that will obviously have a bit of influence on what happens here, but it will also be the Federal Reserve and its rate cut, and perhaps more importantly the statement that comes after it that will ultimately move this pair. I think until something has been proven otherwise, you need to look at this through the prism of going back and forth. Eventually, we might see a bigger move, but as things stand right now, I still think the 1.18 level could be a bit troublesome for the bulls. This is probably somewhat of a microcosm for how the US dollar is going to behave in the next couple of weeks.
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