Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1700.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1900.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1900.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1700.
The EUR/USD exchange rate stabilized at 1.1800 on Tuesday morning, ending the recent crash that happened following the last Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday. It stabilized as investors bought the dip and as they reacted to mixed statements from key Fed officials.
Fed Officials Send Mixed Statements on Next Actions
Several Fed officials delivered mixed opinions on Monday following last week's decision by the bank to cut interest rates by 0.25%.
In his first speech as Fed Governor, Stephen Miran defended the rate cut, but pressed for more arguing that the current monetary policy was so restrictive, risking the labor market. Miran was the only governor to vote for a 0.50% rate cut in this month’s meeting.
Like Donald Trump, Miran has advocated for more rate cuts in the coming meetings. His statement provides more color on the next Fed nominees by the president, including the Fed Chair as Jerome Powell’s term as chair ends next year.
On the other hand, Beth Hammack, another Fed official, warned that officials should be laser-focused on inflation, arguing that the labor market was still robust. She pointed to data showing that the unemployment rate was low and that there were fewer layoffs.
At the same time, she noted that the headline inflation rate remained above 2% in the last four years and that it would likely not return to the target for at least two more years. Hammack believes that easing the monetary policy will overheat the economy.
The next important catalyst for the EUR/USD exchange rate will be more statements by Fed officials like Michelle Bowman, Raphael Bostic, and Jerome Powell. It will also react to key manufacturing and services PMI data from the US and Europe.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD exchange rate has pulled back in the past few days, moving from the monthly high of 1.1920 to a low of 1.1725 after the Fed cut.
It has then bounced back to the psychological level at 1.1800. Also, it remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Ichimoku cloud indicator.
The pair has moved above the ascending trendline, which connects the lowest levels since August 5. Therefore, the pair will likely under pressure as long as it is below the important resistance level at 1.1835, the highest level in July this year. A bearish breakout will be confirmed if it moves below the trendline
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