Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1950.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1700.
- Timeline:.1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1700.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1950.
The EUR/USD exchange rate held steady on Monday after the flash manufacturing and services PMI numbers from Europe and the United States and after a neutral statement from Jerome Powell. It was trading at 1.1815, a few points above this week's low of 1.1728.
Mixed Statements From the Federal Reserve
The EUR/USD exchange rate pair reacted to the mixed data from Europe. In a statement, S&P Global said that the composite PMI rose from 51 in August to 51.2 this month, slightly higher than the median estimate of 51.1.
The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, while the services PMI slowed to 51.4. A PMI figure of less than 50 is a sign that a sector is contracting.
Meanwhile, in the United States the flash composite PMI slowed from 54.6 to 53.6, while the manufacturing figure dropped from 53 to 52.
These numbers came a week after the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by 0.25% to between 4.00% and 4.25% and hinted that more were coming.
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Officials who talked this week expressed mixed feelings about what would happen. For example, Stephen Miran and Michelle Bowman have pushed for the bank to cut interest rates to support the labor market.
On the other hand, Raphael Bostic and Beth Hammack have warned about the impact of inflation on the economy. They warned that the bank risked higher inflation by cutting rates and urged caution.
Recent economic numbers showed that the headline Consumer Price Index rose to 2.9%, while the core figure rose to 3.1%.
There will be no major economic data on Wednesday. The only one to watch will be the US new home sales data and a speech by Fed's Mary Daly.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the EUR/USD exchange rate has held steady in the past few days as it moved from a low of 1.1730 to the current 1.1810.
The pair has remained above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages and the ascending trendline, which connects the lowest swings since August 27.
Also, the pair has remained above the Ichimoku cloud indicator, while oscillators like the Relative Strength Index and the MACD have continued rising.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it continues rising as bulls target the year-to-date high of 1.1950. A drop below the ascending trendline will invalidate the bullish forecast.
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