- The British pound rallied on Monday as Americans were away the Labor Day holiday.
- The 50 Day EMA sits just below, but the 1.36 level above offers significant resistance overhead.
- That being said, I think we’ve got a situation where the market is simply going sideways, due to the fact that the market has been so tight over the last couple of weeks, with the 1.34 level underneath offering support, and the fact that the 50 Day EMA is flat, suggest that we are very much in a sideways move.
Technical Analysis
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The technical analysis for this market is sideways over the last couple of weeks in a 200 pip range, so I think you’ve got a situation where traders are trying to sort out where we are going over the longer term, but quite frankly as Monday was Labor Day, I would read too much into the session. Essentially nothing has changed at this point, and therefore I think you’ve got a situation where you are waiting for the market to break out of this 200 pip range before putting a bunch of money into the market. All things being equal, the market is probably more skewed toward the short term back and forth type of range bound traders are out there, and I think that’s how you will make your money in the short term.
That being said, eventually we should break out of this range, and if we did, I would anticipate a 200 pip move based on the “measured move” of the trading range that we have been in. If we break down below the 1.34 level, then I think it opens up a move down to the 1.32 level. I find this very interesting place, due to the fact that the 200 Day EMA sits there. If we were to break to the upside, clearing the 1.36 level, it opens up the possibility of a move to the 1.38 level above. Until then, most traders will probably be focusing on short term charts.
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