Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:
- Overall Gold Trend: Strongly bullish.
- Support Levels: $3645 – $3580 – $3520 per ounce.
- Resistance Levels: $3720 – $3780 – $3820 per ounce.
Today's Gold Trading Signals:
- Sell gold from the $3745 resistance level, with a target of $3580 and a stop-loss at $3785.
- Buy gold from the $3560 support level, with a target of $3740 and a stop-loss at $3520.
Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:
The upward trend still characterizes the price of gold ahead of the U.S. interest rate decision later today. According to gold trading platforms, spot gold prices rose to a historic high of $3703 per ounce before settling around $3670 per ounce at the time of writing. The momentum in the gold market picked up as investors assessed U.S. economic data, which came in stronger than expected, and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision today, Wednesday, at 9:00 PM, Egypt time.
On the economic side, U.S. retail sales in August rose more than expected, while import prices recorded their largest increase in seven months, defying forecasts for a slight decline. Despite the strong data, signs of a slowing labor market have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver a 25-basis point rate cut—the first since December—and might hint at an easing cycle that could extend into 2026.
Today, financial markets will be closely watching the Federal Reserve's quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, including the closely watched dot plot, along with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for clues on the future policy path.
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Gold's bullish trajectory continues
According to gold analysts, the bullish outlook for gold prices remains strong and could continue for some time, regardless of the U.S. central bank's decisions today. Gold has already risen by 40% this year, supported by trade and geopolitical tensions, strong demand from global central banks, and continued inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to reliable trading platforms, a slight bout of profit-taking by short-term futures traders has pulled the gold market back from its daily highs, but without deviating from its upward trajectory.
As observed on the daily chart above, technical indicators are still in overbought territory after the consecutive record gains in gold prices. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around a reading of 75, which is above the overbought line, and the MACD indicator readings are also in overbought territory. Therefore, any recovery in the U.S. dollar and improvement in sentiment could trigger significant profit-taking in the gold price.
Trading Tips:
Traders are advised to wait for the currency market's reaction to the U.S. Federal Reserve's announcement to determine the most suitable gold trades for the coming days, whether to buy or sell.
US Federal Reserve Announcement Expectations
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting began on Tuesday morning and will conclude this afternoon, Wednesday, with a statement and press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The committee is widely expected to cut the U.S. interest rate by 25 basis points, which would be the first cut since November 2024. This decision comes amidst criticism that the Fed has been slow to respond to weak U.S. economic data.
At the same time, the Fed's updated projections today could show a slowdown in U.S. growth and a rise in unemployment. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also expected to face sharp questions about the central bank's monetary policy during his press conference this afternoon.
In other news, there are signs of progress in the U.S.-China trade talks being held in Madrid, Spain. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to hold talks on Friday to finalize some terms, with discussions also including the sale of the Chinese-owned company TikTok. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bissett has stated that the commercial terms for the TikTok deal have already been settled. Improved trade relations between the U.S. and China are likely to lead to better economic growth for both countries, which has a positive impact on both gold and silver from a demand perspective.
Today, major external financial markets are seeing a decline in the U.S. Dollar Index to a seven-week low, while crude oil prices are rising and trading around $64.50 per barrel. Meanwhile, both of these markets are presenting a positive daily situation for the gold and silver markets. Also, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is currently 4.026%.
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