- The US dollar rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, as we are waiting for the FOMC interest rate decision, the statement, and perhaps most important of all, the press conference.
- The market has been in a significant downtrend for some time, but it does make a certain amount of sense that some “short covering” would end up being the way forward, due to the fact that anything can happen during the FOMC announcement, and traders probably don’t want to be over exposed to any particular position, especially in an exotic currency pairs like this one.
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If we do bounce from here, the 18.50 MXN level will more likely than not offer a significant amount of resistance, as it is a significant support level. The support level of course will offer “market memory”, so I think you have to look at this as some of barrier that it’s likely to be defended. If we were to break above the 18.50 MXN level, then we could go looking to the 50 Day EMA, at the 18.69 MXN level.
On the downside, if we drop below the lows of the last couple of days, then it’s likely that we could go looking to the 18 MXN level, which would make a certain amount of sense unless of course there is a panic due to the Federal Reserve press conference. If they start to make it sound like they are concerned about the global economy, you may get an initial drop in this pair due to planned rate cuts, but sooner rather than later you would see Mexico pay the price as most of its economy has to do with sending exports into America. All things being equal, this is a pair that should continue to see a lot of selling pressure, but if there is some type of panic, we could see a big change. While I don’t expect that, a move above the 50 Day EMA would be a huge move in that direction.
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