Potential signal:
- I would be a seller of this pair below the 18.50 MXN level with a stop loss at the 18.61 MXN level, aiming for the 18.20 MXN level below.
While the US dollar has been very strong against most currencies around the world, the Mexican peso will have not been any different initially on Tuesday, but we have seen the Mexican peso fight back. This pair does tend to be a little bit of a different animal than most other currency pairs, mainly due to the fact that there is so much trading across the border due to necessity, not necessarily speculation.
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Furthermore, this is one of the few places where you will see a higher interest rate competing against the United States. As Mexico is the world’s largest exporter to the United States, it does make a certain amount of sense that the market will end up being sensitivity here to what’s going on in the US economy overall.
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The United States is the biggest customer of Mexico, so if the US economy starts to slow down, you will actually see the US dollar outperform the Mexican peso, as it means that there will be less exports into America from Mexico. If that ends up being the case, then we could see the US dollar strengthening against multiple other currencies as well, mainly due to a “safety trade.”
The 50 Day EMA just above did act as resistance during the trading session, and the candlestick ended up being an ugly inverted hammer. This suggests that we continue to see a lot of selling pressure every time we rallied, and if we do see this market selloff, then the 18.50 MXN level would be a target that a lot of traders would be looking toward. If we were to turn around and break above the 19 MXN level, then the US dollar should go looking to the 200 Day EMA at the 19.23 MXN level. All things being equal, I would expect a certain amount of sideways action here and selling pressure anytime we do try to rally.
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