The USD/RUB has gone from a rather tranquil value of 80.0000 in the past few days to above 85.0000 as of yesterday, this as it appears tensions are building and the prospects of increased conflict escalates.
Since the first week of May this year the USD/RUB has seen trading within sight of the 80.0000 level with definite outliers being experienced from time to time. Up until a couple of weeks ago it appeared that a resolution between Russia and the Ukraine may be possible. The summit between Vladimir Putin and President Trump in Alaska however did not produce any real changes. In fact since the meeting between the two leaders an ominous shadow has gotten darker regarding the prospects for an end to the fighting between Russia and the Ukraine.
As of this morning the USD/RUB is sustaining highs above 85.0000. The past few days of trading have seen an incremental climb turn into a trade that has price velocity upwards. Since Monday of this week the USD/RUB has seen more bullish activity, and day traders who are looking for more momentum in the currency pair in the near-term may find an attractive wager if they have the courage and stamina to pursue.
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Russian Drones Shot Down Over Poland
It has been reported via Western media that Russian drones were shot down over Poland yesterday. While it appears the Russian drones were heading towards the Ukraine, the notion that Russia tried to infiltrate Polish air space to attack the Ukraine is a serious escalation if true. The USD/RUB saw fast bullish action yesterday and a high of nearly 85.3000 developed, this after being around 84.0000 moments before the news was reported.
This morning the USD/RUB has come within sight of the 86.0000 level. Yes, the currency pair reversed lower, but higher water marks appear to be rather durable in the near-term. The last time the USD/RUB traded near its current heights was in the second week of April. If the USD/RUB sustains highs above the 85.0000 level today, traders may believe going into tomorrow and the weekend long the currency pair is the proper decision. Beware of wide spreads in the USD/RUB if you are a day trader.
Negotiating From the Barrel of a Gun
Financial institutions dealing with the Russian Ruble may have insights regarding the political and military conflict that are largely unknown to the general public. But the upwards movement in the USD/RUB the past few days shows that nervousness is seeping into the currency pair once again from a broad scope of players.
- Folks who believed that a positive outcome would be achieved between Russia and the Ukraine are having their sentiment tested.
- It appears that Vladimir Putin is willing to keep the war between Russia and the Ukraine ‘hot’.
- The USD/RUB is not a widely traded currency pair, but its value certainly is effected by sentiment and the fact that the U.S White House is growing impatient will not ease nerves.
- Looking for the USD/RUB to climb in the near-term may be a reasonable speculative bet.
- Traders shouldn’t get overly confident and continue to use proper risk management if they want to pursue the USD/RUB.
USD/RUB Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 85.5000
Current Support: 85.1000
High Target: 86.3000
Low Target: 84.9000
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