Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6650.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6400.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6400.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6650.
The AUD/USD exchange rate has remained in a tight range in the past few days as investors reacted to last Thursday’s Australian jobs numbers and the upcoming RBA minutes. It was trading at 0.6535, a range it has remained at in the past few days.
RBA Minutes Ahead
The AUD/USD exchange rate moved sideways after the latest Australian jobs numbers. A report by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that the participation rate remained unchanged at 67% last month.
The economy added 42.2k in October, much higher than the median estimate of 20k. It was also much higher than the previous month’s addition of 12.7k. The unemployment rate also improved to 4.3% from the previous 4.5%.
These numbers mean that the country’s labor market is doing better than expected. Most notably, the report showed that full-time employment rose by 55k in October, while the part-time employment dropped by 13.1k.
The numbers came ahead of the upcoming release of the RBA minutes of the last meeting. These minutes will provide more information on the committee’s thinking in a meeting that it decided to leave interest rates unchanged.
The other key AUD/USD news today will be statements by some Federal Reserve officials, including Neel Kashkari and Christopher Waller. These statements come as Fed officials consider what to do in the coming meetings.
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Some hawks have warned that more interest rate cuts will lead to higher inflation in the country. As a result, odds of interest rate cuts have dropped significantly in the past few days, moving from nearly 92% earlier this month to 50% today.
The AUD/USD exchange rate will also react to the upcoming Federal Reserve minutes that will come out on Wednesday. These minutes will provide more information on what officials deliberated in the last meeting.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD exchange rate has remained steady in the past few weeks. It has remained above the ascending trendline that connects the lowest swings since April 22nd this year.
The pair is also consolidating at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Also, the Relative Strength Index has moved to the neutral level, while the Average Directional Index has dropped, a sign that the momentum has faded.
Therefore, the pair will likely remain in this range today as traders wait for the upcoming RBA minutes. The key resistance and support levels to watch will be 0.6400 and 0.6650.
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