My previous AUD/USD signal on 13th November was not triggered.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.25%
Trades may only be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
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Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6519, $0.6553, or $0.6695.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6497, $0.6475, or $0.6464.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
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The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous AUD/USD forecast almost two weeks ago, I wrote that I would look for a long scalp a bullish bounce at the support level of $0.6553.
This was not an effective call as there was no bounce there, but it was enough to keep out of trouble at least.
This pair is in some focus today because both currencies are having something notable happen:
- The AUD just saw higher than expected inflation data released which pushed the annualized rate all the way up to 3.8%. This effectively rules out rate cuts in the near term, so the Aussie’s monetary policy is more hawkish and therefore supportive of its value. The AUD is one of today’s strongest-performing currencies thanks to this.
- The USD is falling steadily despite its long-term bullish trend, as expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 0.25% at the next meeting on 10th December increases, with markets pricing in an 83% of this cut happening.
This naturally gives us a bullish focus. Technically, we see the price has made a short-term breakout and is now retesting from above the area around $0.6500 which might now be supportive. The longer this level holds up, the more bullish the outlook will be.
The next obstacle for bulls is close by, at $0.6519.
I think we will see the price continue to advance, mostly because it is finding support in the $0.6500 area as the London session gets underway. All bulls need next is to clear the next level at $0.6519.
I will take a bullish bias today if we get two consecutive hourly closes above $0.6519 without significant upper wicks.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm.
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