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BTC/USD Forecast: Fragile Market Sentiment

By Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex...

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  • Bitcoin shows early intraday resilience, but the broader structure remains fragile.
  • Key resistance levels loom, and the market demands caution as traders weigh potential upside against the risk of a sharp breakdown.

The Bitcoin market initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session here on Monday, but then turned around to show signs of life again. This, of course, is a bullish sign, but really, at this point, I think we've got serious problems in the Bitcoin market, and it will literally come down to how you choose to look at Bitcoin and what your plans are.

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Key Resistance Levels and Market Structure

If you have a situation where you are an investor, then this might end up being a nice buying opportunity. But if you're a trader, I think you have a lot of things to think about. While this is a good sign that we saw a lot of volume coming in just above the $80,000 level, we haven't had the follow-through. The $92,500 level is an area that I think you need to get above. If we can break above there, then the $100,000 level would be your target. And I think that's where the market really starts to look for some type of move, because if we can break above there, then it opens up the possibility of a complete trend change. I'm not necessarily holding my breath for that to happen, but I do recognize that we at least need to pay attention to it.

BTC/USD Forecast 25/11: Fragile Market Sentiment (graph)

We are currently trading with the death cross above, and I think that is worth watching very closely. Ultimately, this is a market that I think has to be looked at with extreme caution, but this is an area that makes a lot of sense. We do have the possibility of a longer-term buy-and-hold scenario here, but you're going to have to scale into a position.

You're not looking for some type of huge move here right away. And you don't want to see that. You want to see you back and forth, kind of building up confidence in this market. If we break down below the $75,000 level, Bitcoin could drop to $60,000 really quickly. So be careful.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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