Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 98,220.
- Add a stop-loss at 108,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and a take-profit at 108,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 98,000.
Bitcoin price remained under pressure, moving from a high of $107,390 on Monday to the current $102,930. The BTC/USD pair has dropped by almost 20% from its highest point this year.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are struggling to rebound, partly because of the ongoing fear among investors following last month’s liquidation event. This price action is a reflection of the ongoing fatigue among investors.
The coin is also struggling as many large investors continue selling their coins. Recent data shows that investors have dumped billions of dollars worth of coins in the past few months.
At the same time, Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies have slowed their purchases as their net asset value has dropped in the past few months. Michael Saylor’s Strategy NAV multiple has already crashed to 1.02, while Metaplanet’s one has already plunged to below 1.
Meanwhile, the futures open interest has moved to $68 billion, down from last month’s peak of $94 billion. At the same time, the funding rate, which is a key number that looks at leverage positioning, has remained flat.
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Meanwhile, American investors have taken a back seat, with spot ETF inflows remaining under pressure. Therefore, traders will be looking for catalysts to provide momentum. It is unclear whether the end of the government shutdown will be that catalyst.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
Technical analysis suggests that the coin has more downside to go as any attempts to recover has found substantial resistance. The BTC/USD pair remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level at 113,980.
Bitcoin has also moved below the important support at $107,390, its lowest level in August and the neckline of the double-top pattern. It has also remained below the Supertrend indicator. Therefore, the BTC/USD pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next key support at 98,220, its lowest level in June and lower than the 50% retracement level. On the flip side, a move above the resistance at 108,000 will invalidate the bearish outlook.
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