As you certainly know by now, the month of November was absolutely brutal for Bitcoin.The question now for most traders will be whether or not December will be any better.
- As we close out the month, we are on the precipice of a major move just waiting to happen if we get more negativity.
- The $80,000 level will continue to be one of the most important levels on this chart.
- It's worth noting that it has shown itself to be somewhat resilient, at least in the short term.
The question at this point is whether or not the market will attempt to break through there again and whether or not it can actually hold. The attitude of traders around the world, at least as seen online, has been absolutely miserable. This does make a certain amount of sense because, quite frankly, the plunge has been enormous. In fact, off the top of my head, I believe it is the second-worst plunge Bitcoin has ever seen, possibly the biggest as far as momentum is concerned. With that being the case, it's difficult to get overly bullish on Bitcoin, but I also recognize that the market is, of course, one that has a long history of shaking people out.
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Only to turn things back around. Whether or not that happens remains to be seen, but I would not bank on it this time because, quite frankly, Bitcoin is a different animal now than it had been during the previous couple of selloffs. We have institutional investors and, probably more importantly, we have a lot of retail investors using institutions.
In other words, if retail traders panic, BlackRock has no choice but to sell Bitcoin in order to deal with redemptions, because, quite frankly, they don't make the decisions for their clients. They can advise their clients, but they cannot make their decisions for them. That's just not how that works; this is why I think a recovery here could be a little bit more difficult than it has been in the past. If we break down below somewhere near the $78,000 level, Bitcoin will just slide off a cliff again. If we can turn around and recapture the $92,500 level, that might be a good sign. And at that point, we will probably try to get back to the $100,000 level.
For December, I would prefer to see this market go sideways and just simply consolidate, perhaps with slightly increasing volume. As far as direction is concerned, I think we need to break out of this range between the $92,500 level on the top and the $80,000 level on the bottom in order to get a read as to where we go next.
The volume will naturally drop off late in the year. So, we could get strange, erratic moves on some of the brokers out there in the exchanges that are electronically driven. And at that point, we have the institutions out of the picture, at least not in the picture as much. So, things could get wild towards the end of the month. But that move, unless there's some type of external factor, probably won't truly be what the market does longer term. Pay attention to the range; it probably gives you the next clue as to where we're going.
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