EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: : Neutral.
- Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1550 – 1.1480 – 1.1400
- Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1640 – 1.1700 – 1.1780
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1480 with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1400.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1730 with a target of 1.1480 and a stop-loss at 1.1800.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
As expected, the EUR/USD pair has been trading within a very narrow range since the start of the week, awaiting market and investor reaction to the release of US economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve, which will begin today and continue until the end of the week. According to reliable trading platforms, the EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1586. Prior to this, the EUR/USD exchange rate had risen to 1.1620 last week after the US dollar weakened amid renewed uncertainty regarding the timing and accuracy of economic data following the end of the US government shutdown.
Markets are in a Highly Cautious Stance
According to Forex trading experts' forecasts, financial markets are now facing a critical phase of "data compensation" that may determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates again in December. Regarding the future of prices, ING Bank expects the EUR/USD exchange rate to gradually rise to 1.22 by the end of 2026.
Last week, the US Congress voted to end the government shutdown, but a great deal of uncertainty remains about the underlying economic situation. Experts commented on the event by saying: "With the government shutdown over, transparency is gradually returning, although many inflation and labor market figures are still based on estimates." Overall, a key factor will be the impact on Federal Reserve policy. Clear divisions exist within the Committee, and confidence in another US interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has waned, with traders now estimating the probability of no further action at approximately 50%.
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In general, we expect the Federal Reserve to largely overlook these price pressures, arguing that they are likely one-off shocks related to tariffs and not indicative of broader price pressures. Additionally, there is also clear, immense political pressure on the Federal Reserve to be more assertive in pursuing rate cuts.
A cut to the federal funds rate of 3.0% next year is anticipated. A high degree of uncertainty surrounding trade and fiscal policies is also noted, which will inevitably increase potential risks to the outlook. In addition, renewed concerns about the sustainability of US debt and the accumulation of a political risk premium ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections represent tangible risks.
On another note, developments in the Eurozone will also be important. According to ING Bank: "It may not seem like it today, but we are looking forward to the Eurozone economy accelerating through 2026. The region has sufficient savings to tap into, and we anticipate a German fiscal stimulus to register in 2026."
Today’s EUR/USD trading scenario hinges on the release of Eurozone inflation figures at 12:00 PM Egypt time, followed by the more crucial release of the minutes from the latest US Federal Reserve meeting at 9:00 PM Egypt time. Prior to these events, the EUR/USD exchange rate is technically relatively lower, as evidenced by the RSI reading around 48, below the neutral line. However, the MACD indicator is also in the same area, awaiting further developments. The bullish scenario requires the EUR/USD pair to first reach the psychological resistance level of 1.1800.
Trading Advice:
Be cautious. The Euro/Dollar's movement in narrow ranges for several trading sessions is typically followed by a strong move in one direction or the other, depending on the currency-influencing factors listed in the analysis above.
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