- The Euro initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday, but it has seen a lot of selling pressure and has turned around quite drastically against the US dollar.
- This is part of the longer-term downtrend that we have been in for a while, so that's not a huge surprise, as the last couple of months have been negative.
- In fact, the very peak of the euro was during the FOMC press conference in September, and although we have bounced a couple of times, it's been negative.
I am looking for 1.14
All things being equal, this is a market that I think does go looking to the 1.14 level, where the 200-day EMA is also hanging about. The FOMC is expected to cut rates sooner or later, but there has been some doubt thrown on that. And now that the jobs number is supposed to come out after the announcement, it's likely that you will see a lot of traders freaking out because the idea that the Fed is going to start cutting rapidly may have taken a little bit of a hit.
That doesn't really matter, though, because, quite frankly, I think this is something that goes on with the idea of the US dollar shortage really coming into play here as well. If we can break below the 1.14 level, the 1.11 level is my next target, and I don't really see much, at least from a technical analysis standpoint, that gets in the way of reaching that level.
The EUR/USD market bouncing from here really isn't that interesting to me, at least not until we get above the 1.17 level at the very least, and possibly even the 1.18 level, which at that point in time, you'd be chasing the highs. You might kick off the next leg to the upside. But quite frankly, if the euro doesn't save itself relatively soon, we're going to see the US dollar steamroll it.
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