Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1400.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1625.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1625.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1400.
The EUR/USD exchange rate continued falling this week as the US Dollar Index rebounded following last week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. It dropped to a low of 1.1520, its lowest level since August 1, and 3.3% below the highest level this year.
US Dollar Index Rally Continues
The EUR/USD exchange continued falling as the US Dollar Index jumped to its highest level since August, up by 3.78% from its lowest level in September.
This price action happened after the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered their interest rate decisions last week.
The Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by 0.25% to between 3.75% and 4% and announced a plan to end the quantitative tightening process that has been going on for two years.
Officials then maintained a data-dependence outlook as they warned that another cut in December was not guaranteed.
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In a statement on Monday, Fed’s Austan Goolsbee warned that he would not support another cut in December, noting that inflation had remained above the 2% target for over four years.
The EUR/USD pair also dropped even after the Institute of Supply Management announced its manufacturing PMI report. This data showed that the figure remained in a contraction mode in October, the eighth straight month.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to leave interest rates unchanged in its meeting last week. The bank is largely comfortable now that inflation has moved close to the 2% target and the economy is having some modest growth.
Looking ahead, the next key catalyst for the pair will come out on Wednesday when ADP publishes the latest private sector jobs number. This data has become more important these days now that the government shutdown is still on.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair has remained under pressure in the past few months, moving from a high of 1.1915 in September to 1.1517 today. It has moved below the lower side of the symmetrical triangle pattern.
The pair moved below the key support level at 1.1545, its lowest point on October 9. It also moved below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average and the Supertrend indicator.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the key support at 1.1400, its lowest point in July. This view will be confirmed if it drops below the support at 1.1500.
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