Bearish view
Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3015.
Add a stop-loss at 1.3300.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3300.
Add a stop-loss at 1.3015.
The GBP/USD exchange rate held steady after the Office of National Statistics (ONS) published the latest UK jobs numbers. It was trading at 1.3173, up from the lowest level this year as focus shift to the upcoming UK GDP data.
Sterling Rally Fades After Weak UK Jobs Data
A report by the ONS showed that the labor market softened in September, confirming that the country was in stagflation. The unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 5% from the previous 5%. It was higher than the median estimate of 4.9%.
The report also showed that the economy shed over 22k after adding 91k in the previous month. Also, the number of people filing for jobless claims in October rose to 29k. Payrolls dropped by 32k during the month, signaling that the economic weakness is continuing.
The poor labor market data coincided with the rising inflation rate. Recent numbers showed that the headline CPI jumped to 3.8% in September, while the core CPI moved to 4.2%.
The next important UK data will come out on Thursday when the ONS will publish the latest GDP report. Economists expect the report to show that the economy expanded by 1.4% in the third quarter. The agency will also publish data on trade, industrial, and manufacturing production.
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All these numbers, together with next week’s inflation report, will provide more color on the next actions by the BoE. Most analysts expect the bank to cut interest rates by 0.25% in the last meeting of the year. It will do that in its bid to prevent more economic weakness, especially on the labor market.
The GBP/USD pair reacted mildly to the developments in the United States, where the Senate voted to end the government shutdown after 41 days. This means that top statistics agencies will now start publishing macro numbers.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD exchange rate has formed several risky patterns, pointing to more downside in the near term. It has formed a double-top pattern at 1.3721 and a neckline at 1.3140.
The pair has also formed an inverse cup-and-handle pattern, which is a common bearish continuation pattern. Also, it remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Ichimoku cloud indicator.
Therefore, the most likely GBP/USD forecast is bearish, with the next key support level to watch being at 1.3015, its lowest level last week. A move below that support will point to more downside.
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