Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:
- The overall of Gold Trend: Neutral
- Today's Gold Support Points: $3960 – $3920 – $3880 per ounce.
- Today's Gold Resistance Points: $4040 – $4090 – $4130 per ounce.
Today's Gold Trading Signals:
- Sell gold from the resistance level of $4090 with a target of $3900 and a stop-loss at $4130.
- Buy gold from the support level of $3890 with a target of $4100 and a stop-loss at $3850.
Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:
Gold prices have remained stable above the psychological resistance of $4000 per ounce amid a very turbulent week of trading. Overall, according to performance across gold trading company platforms, the gold market has struggled to gain strong positive momentum since approaching the $4400 per ounce level last month, driven by the strength of the US Dollar and the possibility of the Federal Reserve adopting a less stringent monetary policy. Nevertheless, gold prices are on track for one of their best annual performances ever. Despite recent attempts to rebound, the gold market was set to record a weekly loss of 0.2%, but its annual gains remain around 52%.
In similar performance, silver prices, gold's sister commodity, rose by 1% in an attempt to target the $50 per ounce price again. Overall, silver prices recorded a weekly increase of about 0.4%, bolstering its annual gains which have exceeded 65%.
Generally, the upward trend for the gold index remains intact. The fundamental factors associated with the strength of the gold price—namely, Central Banks buying gold and expectations for US interest rate cuts—remain relevant. In this regard, market observers believe the Federal Reserve will likely execute the US interest rate cut decision in December, pointing to labor market weakness. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors are betting on a 70% probability of a quarter-point US interest rate cut.
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Trading Tips:
Buy gold on every significant dip and never take risks, no matter how strong the trading opportunities seem.
Will gold prices rise to $4200 soon?
According to gold analysts' expectations, stability of the gold index above the psychological resistance of $4000 per ounce will support the bullish outlook. If the US government shutdown continues excessively, global trade and geopolitical tensions increase, and further central bank purchases of gold bullion are announced, it is no surprise that gold prices could return to the $4200 per ounce peak soon
Technical indicators on the daily chart are turning upward, as seen in the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is holding steady around 51, above the neutral line. Simultaneously, the MACD lines have stopped their downward trend, potentially giving bulls momentum for an upward move.
Recently, gold prices have also benefited from the decline in the US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of other major currencies, fell by 0.14% to 99.60. Recently, this index reached its highest level in six months. As is well known, a weaker US dollar is beneficial for dollar-denominated commodities, as it reduces their purchase cost for foreign investors.
The future of gold prices reaching $5,000 per ounce
According to recent trading and across trusted trading company platforms, gold prices have fallen approximately 9% from their record high last month. Regarding the future of gold prices in the coming months, Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management says that the US Dollar devaluation trades, which contributed to supporting gold prices in 2025, have "paused temporarily."
It has been more than two weeks since gold prices hit record highs, but the dollar devaluation trade, which has played a key role in the precious metal’s rise this year, remains in place.
The commodities market analyst added that the long-term bullish outlook for gold is still based on “slow dollar devaluation,” driven by “global concerns about persistent deficits, rising interest costs, and the gradual shift of government debt.” Dollar devaluation trade refers to investors swapping fiat currencies like the dollar for assets like gold and Bitcoin.
According to some experts' expectations, the devaluation processes were severely affected after the last Federal Reserve meeting, when expectations for a December US interest rate cut began to diminish. The prospects of higher interest rates help keep real interest rates above zero, which means "a decrease in the incentive to own gold, perhaps when short-term yields are able to push interest rates higher than inflation." Experts added that gold trading might decline "a couple of hundred dollars" during the consolidation phase, but once that phase ends, the market is expected to witness the continuation of strong fundamental factors supporting the metal's price, pushing it to new record highs.
Regarding the future of prices, purchases by central banks and buyers in Asia, in addition to ongoing purchases by Westerners who do not invest much of their assets in gold, are expected to contribute to raising gold prices during 2026, likely to $5000 USD and above. Experts believe that many global geopolitical, trade, and economic uncertainties remain, so gold will continue to "rise as the most important monetary asset, a currency for central banks and other major institutions seeking protection from the risks of further fiat currency devaluation."
Ultimately, the US government debt and politics will certainly play a prominent role in gold prices in the new year.
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