Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:
- The overall of Gold Trend: Neutral with a Bullish Bias.
- Today's Gold Support Points: $4050 – $4000 – $3930 per ounce.
- Today's Gold Resistance Points: $4120 – $4180 – $4260 per ounce.
Today's Gold Trading Signals:
- Sell gold from the resistance level of $4170 with a target of $3980 and a stop-loss at $4240.
- Buy gold from the support level of $3970 with a target of $4150 and a stop-loss at $3920.
Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:
Ahead of a key event today—the release of the contents of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes (FOMC) at 9:00 PM Egypt time (2:00 PM ET)—spot gold prices are rising to the $4097 per ounce resistance level at the time of writing. The price is recovering from yesterday's losses, which reached the $3998 per ounce support level. According to gold trading company platforms, spot prices are returning to the neutral zone with an upward bias instead of strengthening the recent bearish reversal.
Overall, uncertainty prevails in the direction of the gold index. The reduced expectations of a US interest rate cut in December are exerting downward pressure on prices, while concerns about a slowing US economy and the independence of the Federal Reserve are boosting demand for gold bullion as a safe haven. According to commodity market experts, gold prices followed a traditional "rise-down" pattern last week. Both bulls and bears were active: on the one hand, growing uncertainty about the US economic outlook and doubts about the Federal Reserve's independence boosted demand for safe-haven assets; on the other hand, the reopening of the US government, profit-taking by bulls, continued hawkish signals from Fed officials, and reduced market expectations of monetary policy easing have constrained the upward momentum in the gold market.
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The bullish gold scenario returns to the forefront after yesterday's and today's gains. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has returned to a reading of 54, above the neutral line, which supports the bulls in starting an upward move. However, they need catalysts, which could come from the market reaction to US economic data results and Federal Reserve signals. At the same time, the MACD indicator lines are halting their downward shift, awaiting new signals.
Overall, the gold price index is searching for direction after the sharp rally last week was followed by a sudden decline. On the downside, the $4050 per ounce support level, followed by $4000, is likely to offer support. Conversely, a breach above $4100 would make last week's high of $4245 per ounce a major resistance level on the way to challenging the all-time high.
Regarding the traditional drivers of gold price movements, it's worth noting that gold's correlation with the US dollar, Treasury yields, and equities is currently low. This means that prices are largely driven by cash flows rather than traditional macroeconomic factors, increasing volatility. Therefore, recent fundamental developments warrant close attention as they could guide future price movements.
The release of the FOMC's October meeting minutes today will also be significant. If the minutes show that most officials remain concerned about inflation and opposed to easing monetary policy, gold could face headwinds. If concerns about an economic slowdown emerge, it may offer little support.
Trading Advice:
Be cautious. Gold prices will remain in their current range until markets and investors react to the US Central Bank statement (FOMC Minutes) and US economic data results. Ultimately, we still recommend a strategy of buying gold on every strong price decline, but without any risk whatsoever.
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