Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:
- The overall of Gold Trend: Neutral with an Bullish Bias.
- Today's Gold Support Points: $4010 – $3960 – $3900 per ounce.
- Today's Gold Resistance Points: $4090 – $4130 – $4200 per ounce.
Today's Gold Trading Signals:
- Sell gold from the resistance level of $4170 with a target of $3980 and a stop-loss at $4200.
- Buy gold from the support level of $3970 with a target of $4150 and a stop-loss at $3920.
Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:
The decline in the US Dollar price and the increase in uncertainty regarding the future of US interest rates, ahead of the market and investors' reaction to important US economic releases later this week, helped the gold price index rebound with gains that extended to the $4111 per ounce resistance level, around which it is stable at the time of writing this analysis. According to performance across gold trading company platforms, the price trajectory is attempting to exit narrow ranges that are increasing the ambiguity of future gold prices. At the same time, some commodity market experts believe that further volatility in the stock and cryptocurrency markets could pose a downward risk to gold trading.
What's Happening in the Gold Market?
Based on the view, monitoring, and forecasts of gold analysts regarding recent performance, gold prices have fallen amid investors assessing the probability of additional US interest rate cuts in December 2025, amidst mixed signals and a significant data gap due to the US government shutdown. The gold price performance comes as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of other major currencies, is generally stable at 100.14.
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Recently, gold pared some of its losses last week after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams stated that there was room for further adjustments in the near term due to concerns about a weak labor market. According to FedWatch, traders now estimate a 74% probability of a US interest rate cut in December. As is well known, non-yielding gold typically benefits from a low interest rate environment.
At the same time, the demand for gold from global central banks remains strong, and this combination of factors appears to be contributing to the continued neutrality in gold prices. Therefore, if this dynamic persists, the near-term price movement in gold is likely to remain volatile.
Technically, based on the performance on the daily timeframe chart, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around a reading of 56, confirming the bulls' readiness to launch strongly upwards. At the same time, the MACD indicator lines are in a neutral position, awaiting motivating factors to confirm the upward scenario. This could happen with the bulls' return to the vicinity of the $4220 per ounce resistance again. As previously mentioned, the $4000 per ounce level will remain the dividing line between the control of the bears and the bulls.
Trading Tips:
Keep in mind that increasing market tensions and rising uncertainty about the future of central bank policies are in favor of gold market gains in the coming period, as it is the traditional safe haven.
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