- The gold market initially rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday but gave back gains rather quickly as we continue to see a lot of hesitation.
- All things being equal, this is a market that I think you need to look at through the prism of potential consolidation, possibly even negativity in the short term.
Longer term, who knows, but it is worth noting that we made a strong swing high back in the late part of October, only to turn around and sell off. The market certainly shows that we had a significant drop, but after we rallied, the volume continued to drop. So, we do have divergence as far as volume is concerned.
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Volume Divergence a Problem?
Whether or not that ends up being a problem remains to be seen, but it is certainly something that I don't like. The shape of the candlestick shows weakness, but the $4,000 level continues to offer support. If we break down below $3,900, that would be very negative, and then I think you will get a deeper correction. As I'm saying right now, this almost looks like the classic Wall Street topping pattern, where you get an attempt to continue the massive move to the upside and fail.
Again, it is a little too late to buy at this point and definitely too early to short. You need to see stability, and stability is sideways pricing for the longer-term uptrend to reassert itself comfortably. If we break down below that $3,900 level, that would be a very ugly turn of events. If you're a short-term trader, back-and-forth trading might be possible in this area because, quite frankly, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the market have to hang out in this area to establish comfort with these high levels.
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