Bitcoin
Bitcoin plunged during the previous week, all the way down to the $80,000 level. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, and I do think that the $80,000 level becomes very crucial at this point. Volume has picked up, and we have fallen off a cliff at this point. Any rally at this point will possibly be looked at through the prism of a selling opportunity, and I am especially interested in the $92,500 level as a barrier. Bitcoin looks absolutely miserable at this juncture.
EUR/USD
The euro spent most of the week falling, as we continue to see a lot of negativity. The 1.15 level is an area that a lot of people will be watching very closely, as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. The downtrend line continues to push this market to the downside over the last 2 months, but I also recognize that we have experienced a very strong uptrend previously. If we were to break down below the 1.14 level, then I believe that the bottom will fall out in this pair. With the US dollar strengthening overall, it is more likely than not will continue to offer plenty of “fade the rally” type of situation.
USD/CAD
The United States dollar initially dropped a bit against the Canadian dollar but found enough support near the 1.40 level to turn things around. By doing so, it looks as if we are going to continue to see a bit of consolidation after moving higher, and it also reiterates the idea of the 1.40 level being massive support. If we break down below there, then look at the 1.39 level where the 50 Week EMA currently resides. All things being equal, though, I still believe that this pair goes looking to the 1.4250 level above, where we had seen this pair drop quite drastically in the middle of spring this year.
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USD/CHF
The US dollar rallied quite significantly during the course of the week to reach the 0.81 region, an area that has been significantly resistant previously, as the market has been consolidating for some time. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is in the midst of trying to form some type of bottoming pattern, and the Swiss National Bank stating that it was watching the currency markets very closely gives a little bit of credence to the Swiss franc weakness. I do believe that short-term pullbacks at this point will offer buying opportunities for those who are looking for longer-term moves. If the USD/CHF pair breaks below the 0.79 level, I anticipate that the Swiss will pay close attention to that.
Gold
The gold market has gone back and forth during the course of the trading week as we have tested the $4000 level. The $4000 level courses a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that will continue to be important, but if we were to break down below there, the $3950 level is an area I’ll be watching very closely, because if it does in fact drop below there, then I think you’ve got a situation where we could see this market dropping to the $3500 level. That being said, if the market were to break above the highs of the week, then I think you have the potential to move to the $4200 level, just waiting to happen.
Silver
Silver continues to be a very noisy market, as we have formed a very wide range for this past week, but essentially settled on a slightly negative candlestick. There is a major uptrend line that the market has been following, but quite frankly, it is very steep, and the other thing that I would pay the most attention to is the fact that the volume has been dropping since the initial break to the upside. In fact, you can make an argument that on the daily chart at least, we see a bit of a double top. All things being equal, the market is likely to continue to be very noisy, but if we break down below the crucial $47 level, it could be the end of the uptrend for silver. If we stay somewhat positive, then be very cautious with this market, due to the fact that the volatility will cause headaches.
GBP/USD
The British pound has fallen a bit during the course of the week, but it looks like the 1.30 level will continue to offer support. The 1.32 level above is a significant resistance barrier, and at this point in time, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of back-and-forth action, showing signs of hesitation to make a bigger move. That being said, over the longer term, I do anticipate that the British pound will struggle a bit, with the Bank of England likely to cut rates. This makes sense, as well as the market missed a rate cut coming out of London just recently.
USD/MXN
The US dollar rallied significantly against the Mexican peso during the week, to test the 18.50 level. This is an area that, of course, has been very important, as it had previously been massively supported. If we can break above there, then it’s likely that this market can take off to the 18.80 level. On the other hand, if we see a little bit of exhaustion here, something that would not be overly surprising to me, then I think we will go looking to the 18.20 MXN level underneath.
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