The S&P 500 is near the 6,655.00 level in early futures trading today. The S&P 500 was around the 6,890.00 vicinity last Wednesday. On the 29th and 30th of October the S&P 500 was challenging the 6,930.00 ratios with dreams of hitting the 7,0000 marquee clearly being discussed. However, market sentiment the past couple of weeks has echoed caution throughout the S&P 500 and other Wall Street indices.
Even in the wake of the U.S government shutdown coming to a close early last week, the S&P 500 has not been able to maintain a steady amount of momentum upwards. Instead, talk of an over inflated marketplace and potential AI bubble have been heard. The ability of the S&P 500 to move to record heights at the end of October during the U.S government shutdown shows that large traders were not trading via concerns about spending bills.
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Federal Reserve and Lack of Clarity to Blame
Perhaps the selling that has come into the marketplace the past few days and caused lows to be challenged has more to do with large players simply cashing out winnings and preparing for another round of equity accumulation in the near future. The Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S is next Thursday and suspicious minds may believe financial institutions are merely getting their books positioned before the long weekend in ten days.
However, another consideration via negative sentiment perspectives may be more realistic: The U.S Federal Reserve failed to give proper guidance regarding its interest rate decision that will be delivered on the 10th of December. The lack of clarity for financial institutions has been important. Those who had been counting on another interest rate cut in December have been left to wonder what will happen next. Cautious investors have driven up the U.S bond yields meaning that they may be migrating to known yields in the near-term instead of speculative profits via the S&P 500.
Near-Term Nervousness and Speculation
The S&P 500 is traversing important support levels via a one month technical chart. Bearish speculators may want to look at a three month chart to consider possible landing spots technically for the S&P 500.
- Targets below would need another strong push of selling, but the S&P 500 has the ability to move lower when negative sentiment rules the day.
- For day traders who want to remain bullish, they should also consider that large players have expressed nervousness in the past couple of weeks.
- The heights reached in late October have run into concerns about an overbought marketplace.
- The near-term may remain choppy until sentiment is clarified and this may not come easily.
S&P 500 Short-Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 6,665.00
Current Support: 6,649.00
High Target: 6,715.00
Low Target: 6,635.00
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