- USD/JPY saw slight firmness on Wednesday, but holiday-thinned trading is likely to create choppy, low-conviction price action.
- Key levels remain 154 for potential pullbacks and 158 for a bullish breakout, while interest-rate differentials continue to support the pair.
The US dollar has shown itself to be a little bit positive against the Japanese yen during trading on Wednesday, but really, at this point, I think we have a situation where traders are just kind of kicking the ball around.
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Because of the lack of volume that will be featured on Thursday, all things being equal, the Thursday session will probably be very short-lived because the United States will be celebrating the Thanksgiving holiday. Because of this, I think you've got a situation where Thursday is probably a nonsensical trading session.
Holiday Trading Conditions and Key Levels
The reality now is that the Friday session might be looked at as a little bit more normal, but really, volumes will be pretty anemic then as well. For the most part, the week's done. So, with that being said, expect a little bit of noise. I would love to see some type of pullback to get involved in this market, perhaps closer to the 154 yen level and take advantage of cheap dollars, but we may or may not get it.
If we can break above the 158 yen level, that's obviously a very bullish turn of events. But right now, everybody's expecting the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates massively again, as the market continues to swing from one extreme to the other. With that being the case, you have to be very cautious, but the interest rate differential, even with a rate cut, doesn't change the equation; you still get paid to hold this pair. And over the longer term, that will continue to be something that people pay attention to.
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