My previous AUD/USD signal on 26th November may have produced a losing short trade from either $0.6519 or $0.6553, although in my detailed forecast I did say that it was worth taking a bullish bias.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.25%
- Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6595 or $0.6659.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6536, $0.6521, or $0.6513.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
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The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous AUD/USD forecast a week ago, I wrote that the outlook would be bullish as long as the big round number at $0.6500 held. It did, and the price has continued to rise ever since, in a fairly well-organised short-term trend, with the price mostly contained by the ascending linear regression channel which is shows within the price chart below.
There is now an 89% chance, according to the CME FedWatch tool derived from market pricing, of a 0.25% rate cut by the US Federal Reserve at its meeting next week, and this is dominating the Forex market by pushing the US Dollar down against its long-term bullish trend.
The Australian Dollar seems to be fundamentally strong as the RBA has no scope for rate cuts in the near future, although a rate hike with declining GDP growth is probably also out of the question – Australian GDP data released earlier today was somewhat disappointing.
I think we will see the price continue to advance, although it currently has some room to fall within the channel. A natural area of short-term support is the lower trend line of this channel which is currently sitting just above the half-number at $0.6550, so a long scalp from a bullish bounce there might work out well.
(image03122025audusd)
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 1:15pm followed by ISM Services PMI data at 3pm.
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