Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6700.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6500.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6500.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6700.
The AUD/USD pair continued its recent recovery as odds of a more hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rose. It has risen for ten consecutive days, reaching a high of 0.6600, its highest level since October 28 this year.
Odds of Hawkish RBA are Rising
Market participants expect the RBA to be relatively hawkish in the next interest rate meeting after a series of macro data. A report released last week showed that the country’s composite and services PMIs were stronger-than-expected.
The composite PMI rose from 52.1 in October to 52.6 in November, while the services metric rose from 52.5 to 52.8. A PMI figure of 50 and above is a sign that the economy is doing well.
This report came a week after Australia published strong inflation numbers that were higher than expected. The headline, trimmed, and weighted mean inflation numbers were all higher than the RBA’s target of 2.0%.
As such, there is a possibility that the bank will hike interest rates in the next meeting. It may also decide to leave them unchanged at 3.60%, while maintaining a hawkish tone.
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The hawkish RBA will coincide with the potential dovish Fed, which is expected to cut rates next week. Odds of a cut rose after ADP published its weekly jobs report. The data showed that the private sector shed 32,000 jobs last week after adding 47k a week earlier.
There will be no major macro data from the United States and Australia today. As such, investors will continue reacting to the recent numbers and their implications on policy.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair continued its recent rally as odds of a divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia rose. It has jumped from a low of 0.6420 to the current 0.6600.
The pair has crossed the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). It is also about to flip the Supertrend indicator from red to green, which is a bullish aspect.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it keeps rising as bulls target the key resistance at 0.6700. A drop below the support at 0.6500 will invalidate the bullish outlook.
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