My previous BTC/USD signal last Thursday produced a nicely profitable long trade from $85,369.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
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Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $86,814, $85,369 or $81,203.
- Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $89,906, $91,589, or $94,196.
- Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
In my last BTC/USD forecast last Thursday, I thought we were seeing a flat consolidation between $85,000 and $90,000 – and that nothing significant would happen until the price broke out of that range.
I saw a bearish breakdown below $85,000 as more likely and thought this would trigger a further move down to $81,000.
Whether I was wrong depends upon how you see the breakdown below $85,000 which did happen. We did not see two consecutive lower hourly closes, which is my usual metric, so in that sense I was correct.
The range is therefore holding, but the price action is looking more bullish as stocks and precious metals are seeing at least some bid, and this market environment seems to be helping Bitcoin too.
The price action looks bullish enough that I would be wary of taking a short from a normal rejection of $90,000, but the price is far from support.
The best approach here today will likely be to take a long trade if there are two consecutive higher hourly closes above $90,000 without significant upper wicks, provided risk to reward looks OK.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either Bitcoin or the US Dollar.
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