EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: : Neutral.
- Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1560 – 1.1480 – 1.1420.
- Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: : 1.1670 – 1.1740 – 1.1830.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1520 with a target of 1.1700 and a stop-loss at 1.1460.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1720 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1800.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
Euro trading was affected following the release of Eurozone inflation data, which exceeded expectations. The minutes from the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, which followed the release of the November Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) data, showed an increase to 2.2% (up from 2.1% in October), slightly higher than the 2.0% expected by the consensus. Core inflation, however, remained stable at the expected 2.4%.
According to Forex currency market trades, the EUR/USD price rose to the 1.1623 resistance level before stabilizing around 1.1605 at the time of writing. The highest price for the Euro since the start of the week was the 1.1652 resistance level, confirming that the general trend change to the upside still lacks the consistent strength factors and stimulus needed for the bulls to steadily push toward the psychological resistance of 1.1800, which I frequently highlight as being crucial for confirming a bullish shift.
Based on the daily chart analysis, the EUR/USD is trading at the beginning of a break of the overall bearish trend. This is confirmed by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stabilizing around a reading of 54, slightly above the neutral line. Simultaneously, the MACD indicator's trajectory is heading upward, awaiting a strong positive stimulus. Conversely, the scenario for a decline in the Euro/Dollar will be stronger if the bears return to the psychological support of 1.1500 once again.
Today's Euro/Dollar trading session awaits new statements from ECB President Lagarde and, on the economic front, the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings for Eurozone economies. Following this, the focus will be on the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change figures, amidst the market's thirst to understand the impact of the government shutdown on the US labor market.
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The Future of ECB Policy
In this context, the data generally confirms the ECB's commitment to keep interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future. This provides the Euro with a fundamental source of support against the currencies of central banks that are cutting their rates.
The details of the Eurozone inflation report may have determined the reaction of the forex market, as they indicate a stabilizing factor in the services sector that threatens to keep inflation above the European Central Bank's target of 2.0%.
Economists commented on the releases, stating: "This positive surprise was driven by a slight decrease in the energy sector's impact compared to expectations, reaching -0.5% year-on-year (our forecast: -0.8%), while services sector growth was slightly higher than expected at 2.5%."
Across reliable trading company platforms, the Euro began the week with a strong attack against the British Pound and the US Dollar, but analysts at Barclays believe that the selling wave seen in the GBP/EUR pair in 2025 will reverse.
Trading Advice:
The Euro/Dollar's bullish direction is anticipating strength factors that it has not yet received, so expect its losses to resume until that occurs.
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