- The euro wavered through Friday’s session, testing a downtrend line and the 50-day EMA amid machine-driven volatility fueled by shifting Fed-rate expectations.
- Despite short-term noise, broader pressure still favors the U.S. dollar unless major resistance levels are broken.
The Euro initially fell during the trading session on Friday and now looks as if it is going to turn around and threaten that downtrend line as well as the 50-day EMA again. This is a market that I think is going to continue to be very noisy. And while I'm not positive on the Euro, I don't know if it's going to be as negative as we once thought because a random Federal Reserve official suggested a couple of days ago that maybe we'll cut. And now we're back to something like an 85% chance of a rate cut at the next meeting, which is where we started a few weeks ago and then dropped down to something like 30%. So, this shows you how erratic and uninformed most market participants are. The reality is that the reactions that you see are mainly machine-driven these days. So, all it takes is somebody to say something.
Erratic Rate Expectations and Machine-Driven Swings
that's an official or worse yet, on social media to make a difference, at least for a day or two. At this juncture, I do think ultimately the US dollar wins this argument, but we may have a little bit of a bump. It's really not until we break above the 1.17 level that I start to question things. Maybe we attack the ceiling at 1.18. But it is worth noting that since the September FOMC meeting, which is circled at the very top of the range, we continue to see pressure to the downside in general. It's not a meltdown, it's just a grind. It's interesting also that we're finishing the week like this because when I looked at the charts during the European session, the euro was down, and then of course it's the Americans that sell off the dollar because the Americans are basically trying to push the Federal Reserve into cutting.
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That's what Wall Street does. It's how they make their money.
So, at this point in time, I'm still slightly negatively biased, but I don't think this is a meltdown waiting to happen. That being said, the Federal Reserve, for some reason, chooses not to cut. That'll change everything because I think we're starting to see that ridiculous panic-driven move in expectations swing in the opposite direction again, and that's exactly what causes this type of choppiness. We'll see. I like selling signs of exhaustion, and it looked like we had it in the morning, but now we're just closing where we started.
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