Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1500.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1700.
- Timeline:1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1700.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1500.
The EUR/USD exchange rate was flat on Wednesday morning as traders reflected on the latest European inflation report, which rose unexpectedly in November. It was trading at 1.1600, where it has been stuck at in the past few days.
European Inflation Jump
The EUR/USD pair was unchanged after a report by Eurostat showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.1% in October to 2.2% in November.
Similarly, core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, remained unchanged at 2.4%, slightly higher than the ECB’s target of 2.0%.
Still, this report will likely not have an impact on the next ECB interest rate decision next week. Economists expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged as inflation still remains near the 2.0% target.
The next important EUR/USD news will be the upcoming European and US PMI numbers, which will provide color on the state of their respective economies as the central banks prepare their final decisions of the year. Christine Lagarde, the head of the ECB will talk and share her opinion on the bank’s next move.
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ADP will publish the weekly jobs report, which is expected to show that the private sector created 5k jobs last week after adding 42k in the previous week. The US will also release the latest industrial and manufacturing production reports, which will provide more information about the economy.
Most economists believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in its meeting later this month, a move that will bring the official cash rate to between 3.50% and 3.75%. It has already ended the quantitative tightening process, and on Monday, it pumped over $32 billion to the banking sector.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the EUR/USD pair has held steady in the past few days as it moved from last week's low of 1.1490 to a high of 1.1660. It has moved above the upper side of the symmetrical triangle pattern and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
However, there are signs that the recovery is losing momentum as the Average Directional Index (ADX) has dropped to 11 from last week’s high of 20. Therefore, the pair will likely resume the downward and possibly retest the key support at 1.1500. A move above the key resistance at 1.1650 will invalidate the bearish outlook.
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