Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3550.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3350.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3350.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3550.
The GBP/USD exchange rate continued its rebound after the US and UK published their recent jobs numbers. It rose to 1.3460, its highest point since October 17, and much higher than last month’s low of 1.300.
US and UK Unemployment Rates Rise
The GBP/USD pair rose after the UK and the US released mixed jobs numbers. In a report, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) noted that the UK unemployment rate rose to the highest point in years. It rose from 5.0% in September to 5.1% in October this year.
The economy lost 16,000 jobs in October after shedding 22k in the previous month. This report also showed that he average earnings in the three months to October dropped to 4.6%.
Traders are now focusing on the upcoming UK inflation report, which will come out in the morning session. Economists expect the data to reveal that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) softened from 3.6% in October to 3.5%.
These numbers come as the Bank of England is preparing to deliver its last interest rate decision of the year. Economists expect the bank to cut interest rates by 0.25% even as inflation remains above the 2% target.
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The GBP/USD pair also reacted to the latest US jobs numbers. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the economy shed 105k jobs in October because of the drop in government workers. It then created 64,000 jobs in November, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%.
Sterling also rose as crude oil continued falling, raising odds that inflation in the two countries will move downwards in the coming weeks. Brent, the global benchmark, dropped to $58, while the West Texas Intermediate fell to $55.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The pair has rebounded in the past few days, reaching its highest point since October 7. It has moved above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The two lines are about to cross each other.
The Average Directional Index rose to 27, meaning that the trend is strengthening. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved close to the overbought level.
The pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the key resistance level at 1.3550. A move below the support at 1.3315, the 100-day moving average, will invalidate the bullish outlook.
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