USD/JPY
The US dollar has been grinding back and forth against the Japanese yen for the better part of the month, and this past week was no different. At this point, it looks like we are trying to sort out where to go next. The ¥155 level looks to be important, right along with the ¥158 level. We have been in a significant uptrend, but if we can break above the 150 a.m. level, then it opens up the US dollar to much higher pricing. On the other hand, if we drop below the ¥155 level, we could see the market test the ¥153 level, an area that is significant support.
USD/ZAR
The US dollar tried to rally during the course of the trading week, breaking back above the 17 ZAR level, but then turned around to show signs of negativity. At this point, it looks as if the US dollar is trying to break down against the South African Rand, which makes a certain amount of sense considering that commodities are starting to per copy even further. South Africa is a major exporter of gold and other precious metals, as well as hard commodities, and therefore, marrying that with a higher interest rate coming out of South Africa suggests that we could continue to drop.
EUR/USD
The euro has rallied quite nicely against the US dollar during the trading week as the markets are trying to determine whether or not the Federal Reserve is actually going to start loosening monetary policy, or if it was a “hawkish cut.” This causes chaos, and quite frankly, I think this is a pair that probably remains somewhat range-bound between now and the end of the year, but if we were to break above the 1.1850 level, then one would have to assume that the euro is going to continue to strengthen, and by extension, the US dollar probably shrinks against most other currencies.
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AUD/USD
The Australian dollar has been all over the place against the US dollar, but it looks as if the 0.67 level is going to continue to be significant resistance. For me, this is one of the easier trades to take next week, because, quite frankly, if you short this pair and are wrong, then it’s an obvious and major bullish move. With that being the case, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility, but if we were to break above the 0.87 level, then it’s possible that we will go much higher. At this point, I think you have a situation where the market could drop to 0.6550, possibly even down to the 0.65 level.
GBP/USD
The British pound rallied initially against the US dollar, but quite frankly, as we close out the week, it seems to have shown a little bit of hesitation. Because of this, it looks like the 1.34 level will continue to be important resistance, and until we can clear that on at least a daily close, if not a weekly candlestick, I’m not convinced that the British pound is going to go much higher. In fact, it is starting to set up as a potential sell signal at the moment. The 1.32 level underneath should be support, but if that gives way to selling pressure, we will probably drop toward the 1.30 level again. Keep in mind that the Bank of England is expected to start selling, so it’ll be interesting to read the statement and press conference results.
USD/CHF
At the end of the week, we have seen a little bit of US dollar stability against the Swiss franc, and I think this makes a certain amount of signs of strength and stability, if not a massive hard floor. This makes a certain amount of sense as the Swiss National Bank is likely to intervene if the Swiss franc strengthens too rapidly. In fact, they have already threatened to do so, and I think the 0.79 level continues to be the floor at the moment. In other words, a bounce in this pair would make a certain amount of sense, especially when you look at the hesitation of the euro and the British pound to strengthen against the US dollar on Friday.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin continues to look as if it is going to grind sideways, and it’ll be interesting to see whether or not that continues. After all, the market going sideways is actually somewhat bullish in the sense that it’s not completely crumbling. That being said, if Bitcoin were to drop below the $80,000 level, I think it would be an absolutely horrible sign. The more time Bitcoin spends in the range between $80 and $95, the more likely it is to find a bit of a floor and perhaps even accumulation. In other words, a quiet market is a good market.
NASDAQ 100
The NASDAQ 100 fell hard during the trading week, but the weekly candlestick doesn’t show the whole story. The whole story for more than half the week, we have seen a lot of back and forth, and quite frankly, a lot of this selling pressure came on Friday as people began to panic about a potential AI bubble. Worst-case scenario, I think this is a market that drops below the 25,000 level and looks at the 24,000 level as a floor. With this being the case, I think consolidation with more of an upward tilt remains the case.
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