- The US dollar again met resistance near 0.81 against the Swiss franc, keeping the pair in consolidation.
- Key EMAs and support zones remain in focus, with broader stability likely unless a decisive breakout occurs.
The US dollar tried to rally in the early hours of Friday against the Swiss franc but has seen selling pressure above yet again. All things being equal, the 0.81 level continues to be a bit of a resistance barrier. And as long as we stay below there, I think you have a situation where the dollar is probably more or less going to remain somewhat consolidated against the Swiss franc. But we also have a lot of other technical levels that we need to pay close attention to. The 50-day EMA sits at the 0.8032 level and is more than likely to be a little bit of support. This is especially true considering that we have the 0.80 level just underneath there. So, I think there's a whole zone of interest at that juncture.
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Consolidation Range and Technical Floors
Breaking down below that level opens up the possibility of a move down to the 0.79 level, which I think is going to end up being a major floor in the market as we continue to see a lot of consolidation between the 0.79 level and the 0.81 level. It looks to me as if we are just simply trying to stabilize. If we could break to the upside and break above the 200-day EMA, it's likely that we could go much higher.
Keep in mind that the Swiss National Bank has a long history of being involved in currency markets by working against the value of the Swiss franc and does not like the idea of the Swiss franc getting too strong, as it crushes their export market. Granted, it's typically focused on the exchange rate of the Swiss franc against the Euro, but the US dollar will also be sensitive to this. Over the longer term, I do think it's probably only a matter of time before we break out to the upside, but I think this is a more buy on the dip type of scenario than anything else right now.
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