The Euro fell during trading on Wednesday, as we continue to ask questions about the overall strength or weakness of the US dollar.
EUR/USD
The Euro fell during trading on Wednesday as it looks like we are threatening the 1.18 level. The 1.18 level of course is a large round psychologically significant figure that a lot of people will be watching. I recognize this as a market that potentially will be testing the 50-day EMA and it's worth watching what the US dollar is doing in general as it has a major influence here.
After all, this is one of the most heavily traded forex pairs that you have available to you and therefore this has a lot of weight on the US Dollar Index and in general the overall risk appetite around the world. What I am seeing during the session is a flood of money coming into the United States again and that of course drives down the Euro because Europeans are buying US stocks.
Technical Support and Upside Potential
If we break down below the 50-day EMA, that could send the market down to the 1.16 level and possibly even the 200-day EMA. On a break to the upside, if we can break above the 1.19 level it opens up the 1.21 level and perhaps, if we get a little bit of momentum building there, then the potential measured move of the previous consolidation which could send this pair to the 1.23 level.
The 1.23 level has been important multiple times in the past and I think it will be very difficult to break above. Nonetheless, the dollar short positioning is at a 14-year high and generally speaking, when you get that extreme, the dollar fights back. That might be what we're starting to see here and if we break down below the 50-day EMA, you can even make an argument that we just made a lower high, which of course is a bearish sign.
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