Analysts are now focusing on the long-term technical zones and onchain indicators which might signal a major turning point for SOL.
SOL Drops with Broad Crypto Market
The SOL/USD pair dropped below $70 for the first time since December 2023, falling to a 26-month low of $67 on Feb. 6. While Solana’s price has since recovered to $84 at the time of writing, it has recorded the largest monthly drawdown at 38% among the top-capped cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin (BTC), the market leader, is trading at $69,566, down 10.4% over the last seven days and 26% in the past month. Second placed Ether (ETH) has lost more than 23% over the last month to trade just above $2,000. XRP (XRP) has also posted significant losses among the top 10 cryptocurrencies, 33% off over the same period.
As a result, the global crypto market capitalization is down 20% over the week and 23.6% over the last 30 days to rest at $2.37 at the time of writing on Monday, February 9, 2025.
Solana’s bearishness over the last week was accompanied by significant long liquidations totaling $295 million over the last seven days, signaling strong downward pressure.
The intensity of the selling pressure was reinforced by declining demand for US-based spot Solana ETFs, which recorded $12 million in outflows on Friday, the largest on record.
Compounding the issue is the dramatic plunge in open interest, which fell by 40% from 2026 peak levels of $8.8 billion in January to about $5.22 billion currently—a staggering $3.6 billion drop that signals waning trader conviction.
This metric, representing the total value of outstanding futures contracts, has declined 4.6% in the last 24 hours alone, reflecting reduced leverage and participation.
In addition, the long/short ratio for SOL hovers near parity at 49.96%/50.04%, indicating balanced but cautious positioning. Analysts attribute this to profit-taking from its latest recovery to $90, leaving Solana exposed as altcoin liquidity evaporates.
How Low Can SOL Price Go?
Solana’s bearishness over the last month has seen it lose two key support levels including the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) and the $100 psychological level.
The last time SOL decisively dropped below the 200-week SMA was in March 2025 and that was followed by a further 45% drop in price.
Solana’s price confirmed the breakdown of a head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern on January 30, as shown in the chart below.
A head and shoulders pattern is a classic reversal pattern in technical analysis signaling a potential trend change from bullish to bearish. It consists of three peaks: a left shoulder (high), a higher head (peak), and a right shoulder (similar height to left).
The pattern was confirmed when SOL price produced a daily candlestick close below the neckline (support connecting the lows between shoulders) at $120.
The bearish target of the H&S pattern, often measured by targeting a drop equal to the head’s height from the neckline, is at 55. This would represent a further drop of 34% in SOL price.
This level aligns with the bearish target of an inverse V-shaped pattern at $1,385, representing a 28% drop from the current price.
Popular analyst Yenni said the SOL/USD pair could go as low as $40, representing a 90%-95% drawdown from its all-time high, which is a common phenomenon in altcoins.
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