The US dollar initially broke higher during the trading session on Friday, breaking above the 17.5 level, only to turn around yet again, at the same important level it has all week.
USD/MXN
The US dollar initially broke higher during the trading session on Friday, breaking above the 17.5 level, an area that I think will continue to be important. It’s offered quite a bit of resistance previously, and because of this, I think it continues to be an area that I want to short this pair because of a multitude of reasons, not the least of which would be the fact that the market is in a downtrend and of course you get paid to short this pair.
With that being said, I am looking at this through the prism of shorting, hanging on for a little bit of swap, and then just rinse and repeat. Longer term, we are getting fairly close to a major area closer to the 16 pesos level, so I don’t know how much further we have to go, maybe 1 or 2 pesos, but I certainly don’t want to be a buyer of this pair.
Fading the Rally
This is a pair that will fall even as the US dollar strengthens depending on the reason. If, for example, we have a strong US economy, that has a major influence on the Mexican peso due to the fact that Mexico sends so many exports into America.
You get paid for the swap at the same time. I think this sets up as a nice fade the rally type of situation going forward and probably will for some time. I have no interest in buying this pair, but if we broke above the 18.2 level, then maybe we can start to talk about turning things around.
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