- The US dollar rose against the Mexican peso, as the markets are trying to continue the same trading range we have been in for several days now.
- The US dollar has bounced a bit against the Mexican peso in the trading session here on Thursday as the 17.10 level has offered a little bit of support over the last couple of days.
- We should also pay close attention to the fact that we have been in a downtrend for quite some time and therefore I think we have a situation where if we get a little bit of a bounce, we have to look for an opportunity to short the US dollar in favor of the Mexican peso as the interest rate differentials certainly favors the Mexican.
The US dollar is going to continue to be a currency that I think struggles in general. The interest rate differential is so high and of course you get paid to short, but you also have to pay close attention to the idea that Mexico sends the largest number of imports into the United States out of any country.
If the US economy starts to really heat up again and it looks like it might, that certainly has a positive boon and spin to the Mexican economy as a lot of the manufacturers will be sending their goods into the US.
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Key Resistance and Support Levels
Ultimately the 17.50 level is a major resistance barrier and if we were to break above there, then the 50-day EMA comes into the picture. If we were to break above there, then the 18 level could be targeted, but quite frankly I just look for signs of exhaustion after short-term rallies to take advantage of what has been a very reliable carry trade pair.
If we break down below the 17 level, then we could go down to 16.50.
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