The US dollar looks as if it is trying to bounce a bit after a little bit of a drop on Wednesday as the dollar continues to chop back and forth against the Mexican peso. This is a great carry trade pair, which has plenty of momentum longer-term.
USD/MXN
When trading this pair, you have to keep in mind that it is a carry trade situation and it's not necessarily a situation where you're looking for massive moves immediately. What you are waiting for is the swap to build up over time with nominal gains to the downside.
I have no interest whatsoever in shorting this market and I do believe that the 17.50 level is a major short-term top. The 50-day EMA is dropping towards that area as well and it offers a bit of a barrier as well.
Market Scenarios and Key Levels
If we were to turn around and break down below the 17 level, that opens up even deeper, trading to the downside at 16.5. This is an area that I would be watching very closely at this point in time. This is a situation where traders will pile in to take advantage of the overall trend if we break down.
All things being equal, if we turn around and break above the 18 level then that could train the market to turn things right back around and run into the US dollar as we are starting to see the US dollar pick up strength globally.
But, having said that, the interest rate differential is a major deterrent and with that being the case, this is one of the few places that I prefer to short the US dollar and probably will for quite some time. If we do see the dollar break above 18 pesos, that could be a problem, and it could show that there's a major risk-off situation out there.
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