My previous AUD/USD signal on 23rd April was not triggered as the low of the day took place below the support level I had identified at $0.7131.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.25%
Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.7177, $0.7213, or $0.7248.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the 1H1 time frame H1H1H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.7131, $0.7100, or $0.7079.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous AUD/USD forecast last Thursday, I wrote that without major news about the USA / Iran conflict, the best approach here will probably be to trade reversals at the extremes of the dominant range, expecting the consolidation to continue for now.
This would mean looking for a long scalp at $0.7131 and a short scalp at $0.7183.
This was not a great call, as the price spent quite some time below $0.7131 that day.
The technical picture is more bullish than it was, as the price went on towards the end of last week to make a new 3.5-year high price above $0.7200. However, we have seen a bearish retracement from there, and we have quite a consolidative price action period as well as support and resistance levels which are quite evenly spaced.
I think a bullish breakout above $0.7213 would be very significant in a bullish way.
I also see the potential bullish double bottom which has arguably just formed at $0.7163 as having the potential to start a bullish move up towards $0.7213. However, there is a problem for bulls here, as the lower resistance level at $0.7177 is close to the current price live, and could be an obstacle to the price rising higher.
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There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, the Federal Reserve will be releasing policy meeting data and holding the usual press conference from 7pm London time.
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