Copper continues to see a lot of volatility but still remains bullish long-term.
Copper markets initially fell on Thursday to reach the crucial $5.50 level before bouncing.
That, of course, had a lot to do with the interest rate markets around the world, especially the 10-year yield in the United States spiking, which had people running away from anything remotely close to risk.
In this environment, I think you have to look at the copper market from a couple of different perspectives. Number one, you would have to be very cautious about interest rates and risk appetite, as it could work against the value of copper.
But in the longer term, there is massive demand and demand remains robust due to electric vehicles, data centers, and grid upgrades. The International Energy Agency highlights that while prices may have hit record highs in early 2026, a looming supply deficit of as much as 30% by 2035 provides a strong fundamental floor in copper.
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That being said, the International Copper Study Group reports that a modest surplus has been found in early 2026 due to increased mine output in Peru and Mongolia, which explains the current price consolidation. A unique factor in this market is that smelter fees have crashed to near zero, putting immense pressure on refined copper production right now despite high raw ore availability.
The market overall is neutral to bearish at the moment, but I do think that the $5.70 level is a level that you have to watch because if we can break above there, we will probably go looking towards the $6.00 level. Conversely, if we break below the $5.50 level, then I anticipate a move down to the 200-day EMA, which is currently at $5.34. Copper is something that I do want to be a buyer of eventually. I’m just looking for a little bit of momentum to continue being.
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