The overall attitude of the Euro continues to be one of apathy, as traders are looking to determine where the interest rates of both the US and EU countries are heading.
EUR/USD
The Euro dropped a bit during the trading session on Friday as we continue to see quite a bit of choppy volatility. That being said, this is a market that continues to be very noisy and range bound. Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that Friday would have been Good Friday and therefore a certain amount of volume was missing from the market.
The overall attitude of the market has been sideways between the $1.14 level on the bottom and the $1.1650 level on the top. The 200-day EMA sits just below the $1.16 level and as we are basically right around there as well, I think it all combines for a nice neutral market.
The Impact of United States Interest Rates
Ultimately, this is a situation where I think we continue to play this range, but I also believe that the biggest driver of things will be interest rates in the United States. Therefore, you need to watch the 10-year yields because the 10-year yield will continue to be a major influence on the US dollar.
All things being equal, this is a market that I think is the purview of short-term traders and longer-term traders I think will continue to have trouble as it is such a well-defined range. The market breaking out of this range could give us a longer-term buy and hold or sell and hold position.
But until we get out of this 250-point area, it is going to be a scenario where short-term moves are your best bet, maybe playing off of both sides of the range, continuing the overall sideways action in some type of range-bound trading plan.