Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:
Gold's overall trend: Bearish.
Today's Gold Support Points: $3985 – $3920 – $3840 per ounce.
Today's Gold Resistance Points: $4055 – $4100 – $4160 per ounce.
Today's Gold Trading Signals:
Bullish Scenario: Buy gold from the support level of $3955 with a target of $4070 and a stop-loss at $3900.
Bearish Scenario: Sell gold from the resistance level of $4090 with a target of $3940 and a stop-loss at $4140.
Note: These recommendations are suitable for medium-to-long-term traders, provided there is strict adherence to capital and risk management
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Daily Technical Analysis of Gold/US Dollar (XAU/USD):
Gold price analysis opens July trading near the psychological barrier of $4000 per ounce, following a sharp sell-off over the past few weeks fueled by sustained US Dollar strength and rising expectations of tightening US monetary policy. Selling pressure persists as the outlook for potential Federal Reserve tightening continues to support the Greenback and weigh heavily on gold market performance.
The technical outlook on the daily timeframe chart confirms the dominance of sellers, who are positioning for technical bearish breakouts that could push technical indicators into oversold territory. The next crucial support at $3960 per ounce remains the immediate target for bears.
Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold territory, reflecting the continuous strength of negative momentum. The MACD indicator remains clearly within bearish territory, while Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are also flashing negative signals.
Across top gold trading platforms, the precious metal headed toward a 13% loss for the quarter ending yesterday, marking its largest three-month decline in 13 years. Meanwhile, the most influential driver has been the anticipation of further US interest rate hikes.
In this regard, and according to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in three interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year, currently estimating the probability of a September hike at over 60%.
The technical view confirms that gold is highly likely to remain under pressure in the near term. Dropping energy prices, a robust US Dollar, and expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates are all factors curbing demand for non-yielding safe-haven assets like gold.
Overall, investors this week will closely focus on the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, alongside any fresh commentary from Federal Reserve officials, as these developments will have a direct impact on interest rate projections and, consequently, gold price action.
Trading Tips:
Gold trading may remain under selling pressure until the market reacts to the US jobs data. Regardless of your bullish or bearish convictions, strict risk management is absolutely essential.
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