Potential signal:
- I am a buyer if we can break above 115.25 level, with a stop at 114 and a target of 118.
- The Australian dollar continues to see upwards momentum against the yen, but at the same time, we just hit a recent ceiling.
AUD/JPY
During the trading session on Friday, we've seen the Australian dollar rally quite significantly against the Japanese yen, but it slammed into an obvious resistance barrier in the form of the 115 yen level. The 115 yen level has been important multiple times, so pulling back from there is not a huge surprise.
This was exacerbated by the Kevin Warsh speech that came out of Jackson Hole, as the Federal Reserve sounds like it's a little bit more hawkish than people anticipated. This did juice the carry trade, but more or less via the US dollar, not so much the Aussie dollar.
Top Regulated Brokers
That being said, I still think this is a market that could break out to the upside, and I'll be watching very closely to see if we can get to see a break above the 115 yen level. Because if we get a solid close above there, perhaps a daily close, then the measured move from the consolidation area is 500 points, and that could send the Aussie to the 120 yen level.
Technical Analysis
Ultimately, even if we do fall from here, I'll be looking for buying opportunities, but I might step to the side and perhaps buy other currencies against the Japanese yen, such as the British pound or the US dollar.
Ultimately, this is a market that continues to be noisy, but it is an area that's been a bit of a ceiling, and it might be a little overbought, but now we need to see how we react to the crucial 115 yen level.
Overall, this is a market that continues to be one that pays you. So if you're already long of this market, you may stay in, but if you find yourself wanting to get in now, shorting, you're going to pay the swap. I'm not a big fan of that.
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