The euro has spent the entirety of September collapsing against the U.S. dollar, which makes a certain amount of sense considering that interest rates continue to skyrocket in America.
That sets up a very interesting beginning to October because we are right around the 1.13 level, an area that features the 200-week EMA and an area where we had seen a lot of pressure to the upside.
What's going on in the bond market?
Whether or not U.S. bond markets will start to see rates drop remains key. If they do, it gives the euro a little bit of a chance. However, we also have to keep in mind that the market has to pay attention to the fact that the European Union may struggle to find energy this winter. If that ends up being the case, the European Union is going to suffer mightily.
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We are in an area that will be interesting to watch, and I do expect some choppiness. If we can get those rates to drop in America, that should help the euro, at least for the short term. This is something that I would more likely than not end up being a situation where I am shorting in the right conditions.
But it looks a lot like a rounded top to me on the EUR/USD weekly chart that is trying to do everything it can to kick off. If it does, we could see a significant drop here, perhaps down to the 1.08 level, although I don't necessarily expect to see that during the month of October.
A rally at this point in time could be factored in if we see a certain amount of interest rates dropping in America, but the 1.15 level will continue to be an area where I think market memory comes back into the picture to offer a bit of resistance.
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