The higher rates in Europe are not helping the euro, as French fiscal concerns continue to weigh on the currency. Money looks to be running to Switzerland.
EUR/CHF
The euro continues to struggle against the franc as we gapped lower and then turned around to try to rally.
The interest rate differential still favors the euro by a large margin. But what is going on here is that we have a lot of concerns about French, and now Italian and Greek, debt in the European Union. That has the euro struggling in general.
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It is not that you do not get paid at the end of every day; you most certainly do. But European traders who do not want to be involved in that type of mess are simply crossing the border into Switzerland with their money.
Overall, this is a market that I do think offers value once things calm down.
It could offer a nice buying opportunity if the fiscal situation in France gets to a place where traders are comfortable with it. We are sitting just above the crucial 200-day EMA, and that interest rate differential does provide a little bit of padding. But you need external factors, such as rates in France dropping, ironically, to make the carry trade work out a little better here.
If we were to break down below the 0.9250 level, then I think we have a deep correction ahead of us. But this is a euro-specific problem. You will see other economies do fairly well against the franc.
As a result, you are simply waiting for bond markets in Europe to calm things down. That will be done if we can get a budget through Parliament in France. As things stand right now, that looks a little bit difficult.
So, look at this as a binary setup. The 50-day EMA above is resistance. The low of the candlestick on Monday is support. If we break one direction or the other, then it should line up with what is going on in the bond market.
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