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Traders looking for price velocity in Forex often do not give the EUR/USD much attention. The thrill of a big bang when wagering often leads speculators to other currency pairs. However, recent action in the EUR/USD defeats this idea quickly. The EUR/USD has turned in violent trading results that all Forex traders need to look at and consider the implications. Clearly, near and mid-term outlooks have not only shifted in the currency pair, and there are opportunities for those looking to bet.
EUR/USD Selling Reflects a Shift in Risk Appetite
The ability of the EUR/USD to essentially nosedive in recent trading is noteworthy. The U.S Federal Reserve did increase its interest rate like the ECB the past month on the 16th of September. But the price direction lower of the EUR/USD underscores other concerns and influences in Forex. USD centric strength is evident, but the reasons around this are complex.
Not only are U.S Treasury yields increasing, but now red hot attention is being given to a handful of European bonds which are also facing plenty of pressure via higher yields. Financial institutions have clearly shifted risk appetite towards a more conservative approach. While global stock markets remain tentative, there hasn’t been a big move lower – at least not yet. So why has the EUR/USD sunk?
EUR/USD Price Action Points to a Changing Mid-Term Outlook
The EUR/USD as of this moment is below the 1.12000 realm and near 1.11970 with fast action. In fact today’s opening of the currency pair saw more velocity downwards. The EUR/USD had gone into this weekend near the 1.12500 vicinity, this morning’s sincere selloff looks dramatic from a technical viewpoint, even in the light of recent downturns. The EUR/USD was around 1.13750 this time last week. And to make the distinction of selling more intense visually, the EUR/USD was above 1.16000 one month ago.
Financial institutions clearly have shifted their mid-term outlooks regarding the global economy and as concerns have grown about sticky inflation the USD has become much stronger. The selloff being seen in the EUR/USD is likely to cause some speculators who look for velocity to consider the notion the currency pair is entering oversold territory. But one year ago, the EUR/USD was over 1.17000. Selling action in the currency pair, however, has been quite strong since the third week of August this year, when the 1.16800 was being traversed until the ensuing downturn.
Fast EUR/USD Moves Highlight the Risks of Chasing Momentum
Before a day trader steps into the EUR/USD and declares their ambition to join the selling frenzy, they have to understand that the violent downwards cycle that has emerged in recent days is a sign of a rebalancing within financial institutions. Meaning that big commercial players are looking for an equilibrium they can trust.
This morning’s strong selling is another signal that financial institutions still are not comfortable. Looking for support ratios to try and take advantage of reversals higher that many speculators believe ‘must’ develop might turn into dangerous attempts to try and read the Forex market before it is ready to actually stabilize. The price action of the EUR/USD should be treated carefully because of the velocity within the market.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Downwards Velocity
Institutions Appear to Be Searching for Market Equilibrium
The speed of the EUR/USD is more akin to lightly traded currency pairs in which spikes often are displayed. The emergence of lightning quick price action in the EUR/USD is a clear indication not all is well and financial institutions are searching for safe places to land. The question is where this value is situated. The ability of the EUR/USD to falter swiftly early this morning is a warning that dangers are ahead in the broad market today and likely into tomorrow. Risk taking tactics need to be used wisely.
Elevated Volatility Calls for a More Disciplined Approach
Speculators who are attracted to rapid movements can certainly focus on the EUR/USD today. However, because of the results already seen over the past couple of hours, experienced traders will likely brace for the consequences of reactions which are likely to develop as the currency pair fights for equilibrium. Short and near-term retail wagers on the EUR/USD should be monitored, and the use of strict ordering strategy is a must.
EUR/USD: Levels That May Shape the Next Move
EUR/USD remains under pressure after its rapid decline, but the pace of recent selling also raises the likelihood of sharp counter moves as the market searches for a more stable range.
The 1.11950 area is the nearest level that may indicate whether sellers are still in control on rebounds. A sustained move back above it could suggest that immediate downside momentum is easing, while failure to regain it would keep attention on the lower part of the current range.
On the downside, 1.11760 is the first nearby support area. A clear move below that level may bring 1.11625 into focus. Conversely, a recovery that holds above 1.11950 could place 1.12150 back on the market’s radar.
For now, the key issue is not simply direction, but whether EUR/USD can establish a more orderly trading range after the recent volatility.
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