Potential signal:
- I am selling below $4,000 with a stop at $4050, and a target of $3625.
- Gold remains under pressure despite the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates, with stronger US economic data raising concerns about further monetary tightening.
Gold
The gold market did gap a little bit during the opening hours in Asia but turned around to fall pretty significantly. With that being the case, it looks very much like a market that is just giving up any signs of bullish pressure.
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At this point, the core PCE number and the advance GDP numbers coming out of America might have been the biggest headlines during the day, and GDP is hotter than anticipated by two-tenths of a percent. That reinforces the idea that the Federal Reserve will probably have to remain somewhat hawkish, and that weighs upon gold.
Gold is becoming increasingly weak
Ultimately, I do think that it might only be a matter of time before gold breaks down. We have a lot of support and a lot of demand between $4,000 and roughly $3,950. It's at that point that I think the market changes its overall attitude.
Over the last couple of days, we have seen it bounce around pretty significantly. We'll see if that continues to be the case, and it's worth noting that we also have a Bank of Japan announcement coming out, and that is going to be crucial to watch as well.
All things being equal, though, I think a bounce from here could open up the possibility of a move toward the $4,100 level. If we can clear that, it opens up more momentum, potentially, to the $4,200 level.
I do believe, though, gold is trying to tell us something, and what it's trying to tell us doesn't look that healthy at the moment.
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