Potential signal:
I am selling at 0.68 with a 60-point stop loss and a target of 0.67 below.
The AUD/USD pair is testing the bottom of the longer-term consolidation area that it has been in for some time now.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar has fallen significantly during the trading session here as business confidence figures in Australia disappointed, but at the same time, CPI numbers in the United States climbed. This suggests that perhaps the Federal Reserve may have to keep a relatively tight monetary policy. If that's going to be the case, then it's very likely that the U.S. dollar could strengthen.
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Trade incoming? Or a bounce?
At this point, we are piercing a large support level. I don't really think this is a market that gives way quite yet, though. We need to get below the 0.68 level before we really start to see this particular pair fall apart. If we do see that, though, I'm more than willing to short this market, as the U.S. dollar is so strong against so many others.
At this point, I would be looking for a move to 0.67. Then, I would probably have a stop loss above the 0.6850 level. Australia, of course, is highly levered to commodities and Asia in general. If we continue to see the U.S. Federal Reserve tighten monetary policy, that has a direct effect on those economies.
Ultimately, I have no interest in buying the Australian dollar quite yet. But if we were to take out the high from yesterday on Monday, that, to me, is a compelling signal that perhaps we are going to stay in the same range we have been in.
This will be interesting to see how it plays out. Of course, it's also worth noting that it's Veterans Day on Wednesday in the United States, so liquidity could be a bit thin at certain parts of the day. We are looking at a potential short here. We just need a little bit of confirmation.
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